依据我们在新西兰的经验，新冠病毒感染出现重症的概率是非常低的。但是，从中国的实际情况来看，这次放开后的超级大爆发似乎比想象中的要更严重一些，出现了不少的重症和大白肺的患者，有些地方也出现了不少死亡的情况。经过一段时间的观察和思考，我总结了如下几个主要的因素。<\/p>\n
其一，此次病毒大爆发发生在寒冷的冬季，体表闭塞，不利于病毒的排出。从中医来看，病毒从口鼻入肺，由于寒冷而体表闭塞，容易形成外寒里热的状况，相当把身体排病的主要通道给堵上了。这是一个主要的环境因素。<\/p>\n
其二，国内大爆发的速度超乎想象的快，好像不过放开2、3周之后，几乎大部分人都被迅速感染了。这一定程度减少了一部分人身体逐步适应病毒的可能性。这是一个次要的环境因素。<\/p>\n
其三，中国西医体系的长期药物滥用和过度治疗。发热咳嗽就检查成肺炎，一看是炎症马上输液上抗生素。直接对抗和压制的结果就是很多人变成了白肺和各类重症。相对而言，反而是发明了西医体系的西方发达国家在使用抗生素方面是非常克制的，比如新西兰，很少会因为新冠发烧咳嗽而直接输液的。它保守而克制的治疗，虽然会造成一定比例的延误病情，但从概率上来说，实在是好于过度治疗带来的坏处的。最近我就收到过一些新西兰朋友的咨询，说国内亲人去了医院，除了常规抗生素输液，还建议同时服用安宫牛黄丸。所实话，这种雪上加霜的治疗方法，不是救人，而是害命。而且国内医院这种大量寒凉压制的害命治法，从几十年前治疗各种发热病的高死亡率，到非典的严重后遗症，一直到新冠的大白肺，一直大行其道。为什么号称科学的西医方法在国内却不能被好好总结和反思呢？<\/p>\n
其四，中国老百姓错误的用药习惯和对发热的过度恐慌，导致乱服寒凉的药物，或采用不当的降温方法，如冰敷。如果患者本身身体虚，属于阴性状态的人，不能随意服药象连花清瘟这样的中医寒药，也不能随便服抗生素这样的西医寒药。身体虚的人用了这些药物是非常容易病情迅速急转直下而转成重症的。相对于输液，这属于相对次要的主观因素。<\/p>\n
其五，中国尤其是北方地区持续空气污染至少有十年的情况了，虽然情况在持续改善，但是空气污染本身对肺的影响是毋庸置疑的。肺的功能就算没有出现有形的病变，长期呼吸被污染的空气必然是受损的。瘟疫的特点就是首先侵犯肺，当肺的能量不够强，很快就投降了，当然更容易出现白肺。这属于可能的长期慢性因素。<\/p>\n
在以上的因素中，主要的客观因素是气候，主要的主观因素是错误的治疗方法。换句话说，如果采用正确的中医治疗方法（中医来讲，一定要宣通肺气），哪怕采用非常保守的西医治疗办法，大白肺的发生率都会大幅下降。<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
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